A QUT political scientist has backed the LNP to regain power but only after the "massive slap in the face" of losing nearly one third of their seats.
Professor Clive Bean predicted the LNP would lose around 20 to 25 seats, leaving it with approximately 50 seats or fewer and a majority of around 10.
"I still think a Labor win is unlikely. The LNP will lose a lot of seats but not enough to face a hung parliament," Professor Bean said.
"A majority of that size is still enough to comfortably govern but it is a big sting for a party that had the biggest win in Australian political history in 2012. It is a massive slap in the face.
"If there are a large number of seats lost, the government really would be deemed to have failed as a first term government with a huge majority."
Professor Bean said several seats around Cairns, Townsville and Brisbane would be key.
"I think a lot around Cairns and Townsville that were historically Labor and went to the LNP by smallish margins at the last election will be important," he said.
"I suspect there could be half a dozen seats or more in that area going back to Labor.
"Both Cairns and Barron River are around a 9 per cent margin and if seats with a higher swing than that fall the LNP could be looking at losing office."
He identified Cook (3.4 per cent margin), Townsville (4.8 per cent) and Mundingburra (10.2 per cent) as crucial seats which could return to Labor, as well as Bulimba (0.1 per cent), Lytton (1.6 per cent), Greenslopes (2.5 per cent), Sandgate (2.9 per cent), Nudgee (3.1 per cent) and Ipswich (4.2 per cent) in southeast Queensland.
"There is also talk Jeff Seeney's seat of Callide could be vulnerable even though he has a 13.5 per cent margin. It would be a big surprise but it will be strongly contested by John Bjelke-Peterson, who is state leader of the Palmer United Party and a well-known name in Queensland politics."
With the latest ReachTEL poll showing Campbell Newman was on track to lose Ashgrove to Kate Jones, Professor Bean said it would still go down to the wire.
"I had thought it might tighten more than the latest poll suggests, but, while Campbell Newman will be disheartened, he certainly shouldn't be writing it off," he said.
"If it were another seat you might think it was all over but in the circumstances I don't think it is decided.
"Based on all the best available information, you would have to say it is more likely that Kate Jones will sneak in. But it will likely be very close."
If the Premier did lose his seat and the LNP were re-elected, it was "possible" he would be parachuted in to a safe seat a few months into the next term.
"Another MP could resign or retire or fall on their sword in a safe LNP seat that Campbell Newman could parachute in to," Professor Bean said.
"I think the obvious choice for an alternative leader in the short term is Tim Nicholls and the party could also look at someone like Jeff Seeney in a caretaker role.
"All the obvious candidates have either historical baggage or come with potential problems, but if Campbell Newman does lose Ashgrove, the LNP may see it as an opportunity to move in a new direction away from some of the unpopular decisions associated with his time.
"In fact, if the government scrapes back in but Campbell Newman loses his seat they could use him as a scapegoat and attempt to push ahead without those shackles."
Media contact:
Rob Kidd, QUT Media, 07 3138 1841, rj.kidd@qut.edu.au
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