Labor doesn't need Qld to win election: political scientist

Only two of the 15 seats Labor needs to win the federal election are in Queensland, Queensland University of Technology political scientist Professor Clive Bean says.

Professor Bean, Head of QUT's School of Humanities and Human Services, said the two Brisbane seats of Bonner and Moreton were the only Queensland seats Labor needed to win.

Bonner is the second most marginal Liberal seat in the country, held by a margin of just 0.6 per cent, and the adjacent Moreton, also held by the Liberal Party, requires a 2.8 per cent swing to fall to Labor.

He said that, based on current opinion polls, the swing to Labor could be as high as 6-8 per cent and, in contrast with the last two elections, young people appeared to be turning to Labor.

"There aren't any Labor-held seats in Queensland that are particularly vulnerable and, based on the Mackerras Pendulum, Labor requires a uniform swing of 4 per cent to win office."

However, he said that the swing was usually not uniform and that some seats requiring less than 4 per cent would probably not fall while Labor might win others requiring more than 4 per cent.

"The seats of Blair, Ryan and Leichhardt are possibilities and are being targeted by both parties."

He said the two most crucial states were New South Wales with five Liberal seats requiring 4 per cent or less to fall and South Australia with three.

"Ironically, the crucial seat for the Liberal Party is the Prime Minister's seat of Bennelong. If that falls and the swing is uniform it gives Labor a majority," Professor Bean said.

"For Labor the bellwether seat is Eden-Monaro, in New South Wales. Whoever wins this seat usually wins government. In this case, if Labor wins Eden-Monaro on a uniform swing, the major parties will be even and then Bennelong would give Labor a bare majority."

"It looks as though the swing, which could be as high as 6-8 per cent, will be spread across different demographic groups. Young people's reported voting preferences tend to suggest they are returning to Labor."

He said the uncharacteristic swing of young people to the conservatives in the past two elections, particularly 2004, seemed to have been influenced by external factors such as the government's stance on terrorism, Iraq and asylum seekers.

"And it appeared that the external threat factor appealed more to young men than young women because women have been shown to have a less forward stance on these macho issues than men," he said.

"Now, industrial relations, climate change and economic management are perceived as more important issues."

Professor Clive Bean 0414 492 149 or (07) 3138 4512.

Media contact: Niki Widdowson, QUT media officer, 07 3138 1841 or n.widdowson@qut.edu.au.